One Thing I Love: Olausson is a big guy that’s really begun to grow into his frame over the last year or so. He’s a scorer that can now get some weight behind that shot and can really rip the puck when he lines it up and is really comfortable finding pockets of space around the net to get his shot off quickly.

Another Thing I Love: Olausson was very good in Sweden’s U20 circuit, finishing well over a point per game at that level. A large portion of his production came on the powerplay though, and a collection of SuperElit graduates with more impressive numbers at even-strength have gone on to be drafted outside of the first round (Jonatan Berggren, Emil Heineman, Zion Nybeck, Andreas Johnsson, Albin Grewe). Those are/were all good prospects, but none would be considered elite or even top-tier by most analysts (for the record, I am a huge fan of both Berggren and Nybeck and think both have very promising NHL futures). The best indicator of success for Swedish prospects usually isn’t junior production, but rather what they’re able to do in the professional-level Swedish Hockey League. Olausson looks more impressive when we slice things that way: his even-strength production is similar to Lucas Raymond (who would have done more with the increased opportunity he deserved last year) and Nils Hoglander, and better than Isac Lundestrom and Dominik Bokk.

Swing Skill: Olausson got pushed up to the pro ranks when Covid-19 shut down the U20 league and eventually settled in the HockeyAllsvenskan (second-tier pro hockey) to finish off the year. The Allsvenskan tends to be a really good environment for most Swedish prospects that are roughly first-round level: the level of competition is high enough to visibly force most of them out of their comfort zone, and unlike the SHL, it isn’t a constant fight just for a regular role in the bottom-six. So usually, we get to see 17 or 18 year olds that are effective players at their level, but not so effective that they’re able to make things look easy all of the time. A lot of first-round level talents can make junior look pretty damn easy pretty damn often, which must be fun for them but isn’t quite so fun for evaluators. Olausson did well at the level with 6 points in 11 games, but he also struggled with some areas of the game. In particular, I thought this level of competition exposed some inconsistency with Olausson’s ability to navigate and handle the puck through traffic, particularly on his zone entries. This is a fun little clip here: Olausson pretty clearly wants to make a play towards the middle of the ice, but he has pressure coming behind and you can see him lag a little bit before going into the wall and losing the puck. That’s a challenging, NHL-style situation that he just doesn’t have a whole lot of experience countering yet.

The Swede hasn’t figured out how to handle these zone entry situations where you’re going into multiple defenders– he can often handle the first one, but his move often takes him into the second defender and he runs into trouble there.

Development: Moving through high-traffic areas is difficult and something that tons of players struggle with, but it’s also a skill that sets elite offensive talents apart from mid-level ones. It’s a rare trait because a large subset of success in this area comes from instincts and intelligence. Even Connor McDavid will lose the puck the majority of the time when checked by multiple defenders simultaneously; McDavid has a high success rate attacking groups of defenders because he’s able to manipulate those engagements to create situations where he’s actually attacking each defender one-by-one, it just doesn’t appear that way because each individual engagement with one defender is only separated from another by a split-second. The key there is to always seek open space, even as you’re preoccupied with stickhandling and immediate puck protection. If you can find pockets of open space within traffic, you can reset, reassess your options, and extend possessions. Olausson has the right idea here: after beating this first defender in front of him, he tries to cut to his left to the space towards the wall. His timing and execution is a little off though– he wants to immediately cut left after getting a step on that first defender, getting his hips in front and forcing that defender onto his back while maintaining a space barrier with the backing defender looking to pokecheck. Little split-second ideas and actions define plays in traffic; that’s why it’s such a rare and instinctual skill.

Projection:
Top-end: Complementary top-six scoring winger that can score around the slot and use his frame to make plays along the boards. Will want to continue to fill out physically. Not intelligent enough to drive play at a notable level.
Mid-level: Bottom-six winger that provides a similar combination of scoring and physicality, only against weaker comp. Skating isn’t as much of a weapon for him in this role as it could be with ideal development.
Low-end: SHL/AHL guy who can’t get to his spots in the NHL and struggles to settle into any sort of impactful role without his usual powerplay time.

Methodology:
Olausson fits in the complimentary category– he’s a big shooter that does well finding space away from the puck, but some issues making plays in traffic will limit his creation ability. This is the off-puck scoring range here: we’ve got Olausson, McTavish before him, and Othmann following up. Oskar’s a good skater that could keep up with top-six pace if he continues to improve his mobility. If he does, I do think he could manage a scoring role towards the top of a team’s lineup, so long as nobody’s expecting him to contribute in a major way as a playmaker or transition threat. If not, he could bring a scoring punch to a third line– that’s still a solid return for this fringe first round range. I like him over Othmann because Olausson is more mobile and a considerably better puckhandler; on the other side, I prefer McTavish over the Swede because McTavish’s physicality and puck retrieval strengths bring an important second source of value beyond his scoring.

One Thing I Love: Othmann can really shoot, especially off one foot. That ability to shoot in stride should become even more essential at higher levels.

Swing Skill: Othmann can be a scoring threat off the rush with that shot, but that’s generally only dangerous when he’s able to find a fair amount of space to get that release off. As an on-puck creator facing up a decent defender, Othmann can struggle to create space. I attribute that to two things: he has a really choppy skating stride and even choppier stickhandling. His upper hand seems to be glued to his hip, reducing his flexibility and options as a stickhandler and forcing his lower hand to do almost all the work. How are you gonna navigate traffic when you’re only able to handle the puck right out in front of you? Look at the stickhandling here– one hand’s doing pretty much everything.

And look at how static that top hand is. You don’t want to handle the puck like this– it’s way less fluid to transfer the puck to the backhand, you’re slower to pull the puck back, and you’re compromising extension. Get those hands out in front of you.

Development: So, we want skating and stickhandling improvement to make Othmann a greater threat off the rush. That’s fairly straightforward as far as player dev goes, certainly better than tackling processing issues. For stickhandling, you start with stationary player-puck-cone drills, work up to moving player-puck-cone drills, then get 1v1 rushes and small-area games going. Ideally, you do the early stages of the skating work at the same time as the stickhandling work: focus on elongating that stride, fully extending the pushing leg, and driving through the ice with ankle extension to finish the movement. Then, he can begin to combine the two with those rush drills and small-area exercises. Having to focus on retaining both new movements while first applying them to game-like scenarios might help him establish those motions as natural skills.

Projection:
Top-end: Top-six winger as a scoring complement. That shot in stride should be a real weapon and he’s an off-wing powerplay option as well.
Mid-level: Bottom-six guy with a powerplay role and off-puck scoring ability, but limited self-creation.
Low-end: Struggles to overcome his issues with the puck on his stick and tops out in the AHL, maybe with a few NHL stints due to the shot.

Methodology:
Othmann’s current level of play doesn’t particularly impress me. Lucky for him, he’s got a big shot and plenty of room to grow. There’s a high level of choppiness to his skating and hands, but those weaknesses are so clear that a development staff should be able to get to work quickly and straightforwardly. Some extra speed and shiftiness could be unlocked simply by lengthening the leg extension and stabilizing Othmann’s upper body. Of course, everything’s easier said than done, but from a developmental perspective you prefer a weak skater with clear mechanical issues than a weak skater whose stride is relatively clean (and thus more difficult to address). For the stickhandling, Othmann just needs to re-train himself to separate that hand from his hip and stop shooting himself in the foot by choking off all flexibility. Othmann’s gone a long way for a player with such weaknesses because of how good of a scorer he is. Improve the skating and stickhandling, and he could be a solid complimentary winger.

Related
• Deep Dive: A look into Brennan Othmann’s game (Dennis Schellenberg, FC Hockey)

One Thing I Love: Chayka is an unexciting defenceman that didn’t really do a whole lot to stand out. But he did that as a defenceman in 10 games in the KHL, the second best league in the world, so it really isn’t much of a bad thing at all. He doesn’t do anything crazy on the breakout. At 6’3” though, he doesn’t have to work as hard to beat a forechecker as a 5’10 guy that’s skating for his life does; really, all Chayka needs to do to be a solid asset on the breakout is involve himself frequently and make clean outlet passes. And that, he can do: he’s quite mobile and will frequently jump up with his feet to provide an option to tie the breakout together, and he did well making short passes to open forwards in space. Everything’s a little bit easier when you’re 6’3.

Swing Skill: At 6’3, 185 pounds, Chayka’s got a real Bambi look to him. Perhaps not quite as bad as rookie Puljujarvi, but close.

He hasn’t filled out into his frame yet and can be quite unbalanced and uncoordinated at times. I think there’s a physical upside here: when a physically immature player finally fills out and begins to feel comfortable in their body, the newfound balance and coordination can really have a ripple effect into areas beyond strength and skating.

Passes get crisper when you don’t have to throw your body weight behind every puck, you can move laterally a lot better when you aren’t tripping over your own feet, and it’s really fucking hard to knock a guy that’s 6’3” and wide-shouldered off the puck in the corner. The smaller you are, the better you can usually evade forecheckers; the bigger you are, the more those forecheckers will try to evade you.

Development: Get this guy in the gym. No disrespect to Chayka, who is a million times more athletic than myself, but there’s no way they’re aren’t some muscular imbalances here to be addressed. NHL weight for these tall guys is over 200 pounds, often pretty comfortably too.

Projection:
Top-end: Steady top-four defenceman. Grows into his frame and presents a real nice combo of size, strength, and speed. Not particularly exciting, but involved and reliable.
Mid-level: Bottom-pair defenceman that could pass as a #4, decent puckmover but doesn’t reach his physical potential and struggles a bit with NHL pace.
Low-end: KHL guy.

Methodology:
I mean, Chayka’s just solid. He’s nothing special, he’s not all that exciting, but he does his job. 21 pro games– 11 of them in the second best league in the world– is impressive for an 18 year old defenceman. He’s a good defender, can move the puck in transition, not much of an offensive contributor– and that’s him in the KHL at 18. Chayka had a very solid OHL rookie season last year (I remember the OHL Draft hype around him too). There could be some extra chops in transition just waiting to be unlocked as the defenceman becomes more comfortable at the professional level. He was making safe plays in transition this year, it’d be standard progression to see some longer, higher difficulty passes next season. Chayka could be one of those steady guys that can play in a top-four, not doing a whole lot out there but just supporting a more talented partner and not fucking up too regularly. That’d be real good return around the start of the second round.

One Thing I Love: Raty is a very dangerous perimeter playmaker. His quick hands allow him to manipulate defenders and create lanes, which he exploits with fast, accurate passes through tight seams. He could be quite the powerplay weapon if utilized correctly.

Swing Skill: I find that Raty really struggles with zone entries. Even at the U20 level, his rush opportunities were low and a ’good” result for him would be to work the puck out to the wall and set up the offence. Rush offence is the most valuable and efficient type of creation: playing slow and letting your opponent get back on defence dampens offensive results. Raty is too focused on slow, outside possession hockey rather than playing fast, middle-lane hockey to maximize opportunities. Nothing hurts me more than a player taking the puck out of the slot to the wall.

You have an open lane! Don’t give it to the guy with zero options on the wall.

Development: When players move from one level to another, there’s usually a short adjustment period as a player figures out what still works, what new things work, and what things no longer work. We know that. It seems like when Raty jumped from U18 to U20, he never did quite manage to figure out what works. What does work? Keeping your feet moving as much as possible w/o compromising your ability to make a play allows you several options. East-west movement stretches the defence and lets your teammates cut in behind. Pushing the defence back with speed creates space for reinforcements behind the play. All of that stuff works. Raty needs more confidence and more creativity off the rush. I don’t think anybody’s doubting his skill; if he can work through that with video work and rush drills, he could be a real good player.

Projection:
Top-end: #1 centre with top-tier playmaking and puck skills. Can seem a little hard to imagine sometimes, but this guy was a projected first overall pick at one time.
Mid-level: #3C with a steady two-way game and inconsistent offensive impact. Could be a top-unit powerplay option.
Low-end: Continues to struggle in the Liiga and can’t translate his game to higher levels.

Methodology:
Whereas I’m reasonably optimistic about Brennan Othmann because his areas of development are clear, I’m quite pessimistic about Mr. Aatu Raty because I don’t even know where you start with this guy (the two are ranked fairly similarly because Raty has considerably more natural skill than Othmann, and yet their impacts still project to be similar). He’s always playing on the outside, he doesn’t create much at all on zone entries, and he just seems to be a shell of the player that he was at lower levels. We know he has a lot of skill– his individual tools are all good to very good– but there’s just a complete failure to connect his abilities and put himself in positions to impact the game. He’s hanging onto these rankings by a thread (if I had only gone to 32 like I had planned, Raty wouldn’t have made it, obviously), sticking around only because of the promise of those individual tools and his solid defensive game. He could figure things out and rediscover his old form, but it’s a long shot. More likely, he’s a mid-level usage, defensively-oriented centre who you can throw onto a powerplay where he can do his thing without having to worry too much about defenders challenging him. There’s some value there, but almost all of the forwards on this list project to bring more 5v5 offence than Raty does at this point.

Related
• Deep Dive: A look into Aatu Raty’s game (Josh Bell, FC Hockey)

One Thing I Love: Salminen is an excellent playmaker, having tallied 16 assists in 17 games in Finland’s U20 circuit. His defining trait in that area is his ability to remain unbothered by traffic and make short passes in the slot, forcing the goaltender to quickly adjust his position if he wants to make a stop. That’s a very difficult, sometimes impossible task for a goalie.

Swing Skill: Salminen does not skate particularly well. He’s a big guy– 6’3– and it shows in his slow feet and hunched-over skating stride, fairly typical for players without the coordination of a smaller-limbed player. Some of the issues are visible just in that clip from above.

Slow feet– relying on the power of each stride rather than quick, explosive crossovers and movements. He’s quite slow to cross over too; that doesn’t bode well for explosiveness down the line unless he can really speed those feet up. And he has a bit of a case of Quinton Byfield syndrome: that dramatic forward lean isn’t doing him any favours. It’s hard to be a purely cycle-oriented player in today’s game; that’s why these big guys need to skate well too.

Development: We want to add foot speed here. One way to do that can be to really emphasize crossovers: anytime Salminen is in open ice, it should be crossover-crossover-crossover. We want to spam that shit like a 9 year old spams poke checks in ‘chel, remember. The best skaters can absolutely churn these out. And if you can get quick feet during crossovers, that quickness should extend itself to a typical stride and other skating movements. But if Salminen can get good at crossovers, he really shouldn’t be relying much on a typical stride to create speed for himself, because no player’s stride is more effective at quickly generating speed and power than their crossover. Start with isolated skating work then progress into rush drills.

Salminen finds himself in a very interesting developmental spot. He’s an NCAA commit, like Veeti Miettinen last season. EliteProspects lists him as a UDenver guy for 2022-23, which gives him one more year to figure out before he jumps to college. And remember, playing in the Liiga would compromise that NCAA eligibility. He’s got another year of junior ahead of him– the question is whether that will be another year in Finland’s U20 circuit or if he’ll move to North America to play in a league like the USHL (that or a Canadian Jr. A league would be his only realistic options). That’s a challenging gap year there: that’s a year before he can jump to a competitive level after doing very well in U20 this past year. But this is not a perfect player and he has visible flaws at that level, so there should still be opportunity for important development: most notably those skating adjustments and a willingness to harness his size to a greater extent.

Projection:
Top-end: #2C with the size to play a commanding cycle game and the playmaking and in-traffic ability to make things happen out of those spots. Needs to improve the skating ao he can remain a rush threat.
Mid-level: Bottom-six centre who can play a similar role only against less competition and with less consistent impact. Could get by in this role with only minimal strides as a skater.
Low-end: Struggles to place himself in situations where he can use his playmaking and can’t progress further than the Liiga.

Methodology:
Salminen’s a big playmaker who operates well in traffic considering his poor foot speed. I like Samu a lot– I mean, you gotta like the Joe Thornton-y throwback playmaker, but the lack of foot speed really, really hurts his odds. He’s super smart, does well in traffic, but he’s doing that at the Finnish U20 level. It could all disappear when he finally debuts for the University of Denver in 2022-23. And that’s the other issue– Salminen won’t debut for the University of Denver until 2022. If he returns to the Finnish junior circuit, there will be no game environment forcing Salminen to either add foot speed or develop strategies to mitigate his lack of it. Unless he’s getting some really, really meaningful practice reps in, Salminen won’t get better next year (not as a skater, anyways). Those are big issues, but I’m still quite high on Salminen because his playmaking, scoring, and IQ are all first-round level. This is our final development staff bet– if you think you can improve the skating, and you’re willing to expend resources beginning next season to ensure that Salminen makes improvements in this weird gap year that he’s got next season, then I like this bet in the late first or early second.